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[轉貼] 美國億萬富翁「新債王」Jeffrey Gundlach命盤

華府政權轉移 新債王岡拉克:美股將迎來1場巨變

2021/01/14 14:54   

雙線資本(Doubleline Capital)執行長兼投資長岡拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)。(路透)

〔財經頻道/綜合報導〕美國億萬富翁被稱為「新債王」的岡拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)指出,美國股市隨著拜登即將入主白宮,將出現1場巨變,大型科技股領先的趨勢恐被逆轉,呼籲投資人做好準備。

《福斯財經網》報導,始於2017年及2018年,川普歷史性減稅措施下的市場趨勢已開始逆轉。川普的減稅與就業法案將最高公司稅率從35%降至21%,誘使企業將規模近1兆美元的海外現金回流。

雙線資本(Doubleline Capital)執行長兼投資長岡拉克週二於1場電話會議上指出:「我認為這是市場機制出現重大變革的某種徵兆。」據悉,雙線資本管理近1480億美元的資產。

報導指出,大型科技股包括亞馬遜、蘋果、Alphabet 、臉書、Netflix及微軟,自2018年來已為股市注入一股能量,同時也受惠於武漢肺炎(新型冠狀病毒病,COVID-19)封鎖措施下的在家上班。

但最近的科技股已出現橫向盤整走勢,可能導致所謂拋售潮,如那斯達克100指數與標普500指數的相對表現在超越2000年的峰值後,又再回吐漲幅。而大型科技股領導地位的轉變,也不是美股表面下唯一出現的變化,像是代表小型公司的羅素2000指數去年漲幅達18%,就跑贏標普500指數的16%漲幅,且在2021年初持續領先。

https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/3410837

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Jeffrey Gundlach

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Jeffrey Gundlach
Born
Jeffrey Edward Gundlach

October 30, 1959 (age 61)
Alma materDartmouth College
Yale University
OccupationBond-fund manager
EmployerDoubleLine Capital LP
Net worthIncrease$2 billion (October 2018)[1]
Spouse(s)Nancy Draper (div.)

Jeffrey Edward Gundlach (born October 30, 1959) is an American investor and businessperson. He is the founder of DoubleLine Capital LP, an investment firm. He was formerly the head of the $9.3 billion TCW Total Return Bond Fund.[2]

Early life[edit]

Jeffrey Gundlach was born October 30, 1959, in Amherst, New York,[3] where his father was a chemist for Pierce and Stevens Chemical Corp.[4] He is a graduate of Dartmouth College where he graduated summa cum laude in math and philosophy in 1981,[2] and attended Yale University for a Ph.D. in theoretical mathematics before dropping out.[5]

Career[edit]

Gundlach was formerly the head of the $9.3 billion TCW Total Return Bond Fund, where he finished in the top 2% of all funds invested in intermediate-term bonds for the 10 years that ended prior to his departure.[2] He was fired by TCW in 2009.[6]

DoubleLine Capital[edit]

In 2009, shortly after his firing from TCW, Gundlach founded Doubleline, along with Philip Barach and 14 other members of Gundlach's senior staff from TCW.[7] Barach was Gundlach's co-manager of the $12 Billion TCW Total Return bond fund.[7] In a February 2011 cover story, Barron's called him the "King of Bonds".[8]

On March 9, 2011, Gundlach was quoted on CNBC that "Munis Are The New Subprime." "You’ve got a history of low defaults, which is comforting. But that kind of sounds like what subprime sounded like back in 2006," Gundlach said. Gundlach pointed out that even if defaults do not ultimately climb as high as critics like Meredith Whitney have warned, muni bonds will likely trade much lower. "Between here and the end game, lies the valley. And the valley is full of fear. I think the muni market is going to go down by at least, on the long end, something like 15 and 20 percent," he said.[9]

On March 10, 2011, Gundlach reportedly liquidated 55 percent of his personal holdings in municipal bonds.[10] However, the decline he predicted did not occur and on the same day as his liquidation, the Bond Buyer Index closed at 106.151904, with this index closing at 119.886063 on December 30, 2011, the last day of trading in 2011, equivalent to an improvement of +12.9%. The index closed at 129.99416 on December 31, 2012.[11]

At the time, Gundlach also stated: "Nobody owns California general obligation bonds because they think it's an improving credit story," he said, drawing chuckles from the audience.[10]

However, since March 2011, the ratings of California General Obligation bonds improved from A- to AA- by Standard and Poors and from A1 to Aa3 by Moody's.[12] In 2012, he was included in the 50 Most Influential list of Bloomberg Markets magazine.

Market strategies[edit]

  • 2014 market outlook[13]
  • 2013 market outlook

Personal life[edit]

He was married to Nancy Draper, a bassist in his former band, "Radical Flat" (previously known as "The Greens),[4] who filed for divorce from Gundlach in 2010 after being married for more than 20 years.[14] He currently lives in Los Angeles, California.[15]

Home burglary and recovery of art[edit]

Gundlach's Santa Monica home was burgled in his absence in September 2012. Several pieces of art were taken along with some wine, five designer watches, cash and a prized[16] 2010 red Porsche Carrera 4S.[17] Some days after the theft, Gundlach added to a $200,000 "overall" reward a $1 million reward for the Piet Mondrian painting among the missing, and a $500,000 reward for the Jasper Johns. The total value of the stolen property was put at $10 million at the time.[16][17] Within weeks, a tip led to the recovery of the art works and arrests of suspects in the theft. The rewards—with the one for the Mondrian being termed a record for a single art work—were being said to have played a role in the recovery though no determination of payment had been made. The Porsche was still missing.[18]

Philanthropy[edit]

In 2016, Gundlach donated $42.5 million to Albright–Knox Art Gallery in Buffalo, New York, as part of their capital campaign and expansion project.[19] The gift represents the city’s largest cultural gift from an individual, according to museum director Janne Sirén. The Gallery was renamed the Buffalo Albright-Knox-Gundlach Art Museum, or Buffalo AKG Art Museum for short.[20]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Gundlach

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不怕辛苦,就怕不公平;不怕卑微,就怕不公義。
可以哭泣,不要洩氣;可以悲傷,不要放棄!

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