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雙北中午飆36度高溫 各地防午後雷陣雨

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2020年8月15日 上午7:00

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今天中午前後台北市、新北市高溫仍有36度以上，民眾應注意防曬並多補充水份。   圖/氣象局

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[新頭殼newtalk] 今天東部、東南部地區、恆春半島及澎湖有局部短暫陣雨或雷雨，其他地區及金門、馬祖為多雲到晴，午後有局部短暫雷陣雨，並有局部大雨發生的機率，清晨至上午中南部地區亦有零星短暫陣雨，中午前後台北市為橙色燈號，有連續出現36度高溫的機率，新北市為黃色燈號，請注意避免熱傷害。

中央大學大氣科學系兼任副教授吳德榮在「三立準氣象．老大洩天機」專欄表示，根據14日20時的歐洲中期預報中心(ECMWF)模式模擬顯示，未來一週中層「太平洋高壓」中心大約在日本附近徘徊，沉降作用強、大氣穩定；其低層則是亞洲大陸東移的乾熱氣團(學名「熱帶大陸氣團」)，為日、韓、華中、華北帶來「熱浪」的天氣。而台灣則是在中層「太平洋高壓」的邊緣，沉降作用弱，低層則是偏南至東南風、暖濕的空氣，致使大氣不穩定。中午前大致晴朗炎熱；下午則因陽光加熱，大氣不穩定釋放，常有強對流發展。模式模擬亦顯示，關島以東至換日線(東經180度)海溫高、垂直風切小，已轉變為有利下一個「熱帶擾動」發展的海域；由於距離遥遠，並無移近台灣的機率。

六日兩天各地上半天晴朗、中午炎熱，午後有局部陣雨或雷雨，並有「大雷雨」發生的機率，應注意防範「劇烈天氣」(雷擊、強風、瞬間強降雨)。南方水氣漸增多，恆春半島及花東偶有局部短暫雨的機率。今日各地區氣溫：北部24至36度、中部22至35度、南部23至35度、東部22至36度。

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馬龍

變天！低壓周六報到 氣象局：2地區有雨

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莊楚雯

2020年8月13日 上午7:38

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留言

未來一周天氣大致穩定，不過氣象局提醒要特別留意周六(15日)低氣壓接近，東半部及恆春半島降雨機率提高，有陣雨或雷雨。氣象主播賴忠瑋也指出，未來低氣壓會向西移動接近台灣，在周六距離台灣最近，中心可能從台灣北部海面通過。

氣象局預報顯示，周六（15日）低氣壓影響，東半部及恆春半島有局部短暫陣雨或雷雨，其他地區從晴天變為多雲，午後雷陣雨範圍擴大，並有局部大雨發生機率。而周五、周日到下周三(14日、16至19日)受太平洋高壓影響，天氣大多多雲時晴、午後雷陣雨的天氣型態。

氣象主播賴忠瑋也PO文表示，周六台灣受低氣壓接近影響，水氣和不穩定條件都會增加，午後熱對流發展較明顯及旺盛。目前低壓中心位置在日本琉球的東南方海面，增強成熱帶性低氣壓的機率不高。不過未來低氣壓會逐漸隨著高壓外圍向西移動接近台灣，預計周六和台灣的距離最近，中心可能從台灣北部海面通過。周日(16日)下半天低氣壓遠離，天氣回到較穩定的狀態。

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馬龍

雙北高溫警戒！氣象專家：晴朗炎熱上看37度 午後防大雷雨

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2020年8月13日 上午8:23

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留言

前中央氣象局氣象預報中心主任吳德榮說，今晨在日本南方海面的「熱帶擾動」(原TD08)，因環境垂直風切大，結構仍呈現高低層分離。最新美國系集模式(GEFS)模擬的路徑周六(15日)大致接近台灣東北方海面，經過的海域「海洋熱含量」高是有利其維持環流強度，但環境垂直風切則是愈來愈大，周六掠過東北方海面時，將進一步減弱。其殘餘的環流是否影響台灣天氣？與距離遠近密切相關；而模擬顯示有「不確定性」，宜持續觀察。

（取自氣象局網站）

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中央氣象局早上7時02分發布高溫資訊指出，天氣晴朗炎熱，今天中午前後台北市、新北市地區為黃色燈號，請注意。

氣象專家吳德榮在「三立準氣象·老大洩天機」專欄指出，歐洲中期預報中心(ECMWF)模式模擬顯示，今天各地晴朗炎熱，最高溫約36度左右，地理環境特殊的地點，有升至37度的機率，中午前後仍要防曬、防中暑。大氣不穩定，午後山區有局部陣雨或雷雨，並影響部分平地，有大、豪雨及「大雷雨」發生的機率，應注意防範「劇烈天氣」(雷擊、強風、瞬間強降雨)。今日各地區氣溫：北部24至36度、中部23至36度、南部23至36度、東部23至37度。

他說，明天至下周日(14至16日)各地為晴朗炎熱，最高溫約35、36度，地理環境特殊的地點，有升至37度的機率，中午前後仍要防曬、防中暑。但大氣不穩定，午後山區對流旺盛，有陣雨或雷雨，並擴及部分平地，仍有「大雷雨」發生的機率。南方水氣多，恆春半島及花東偶有零星短暫雨的機率。

吳德榮表示，最新模式模擬顯示，下周一至周三(17至19日) 盛行東南風，各地晴朗炎熱，最高溫約36度，地理環境特殊的地點，有升至37度的機率，中午前後仍要防曬、防中暑。但大氣不穩定，午後山區對流旺盛，有陣雨或雷雨，新竹以南部分平地有受影響的機率，有較大雨勢。迎風面恆春半島及花東偶有局部短暫雨。

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雨水就是下不來 石門水庫蓄水率創歷年第9枯

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石門水庫連日來雖有降雨，卻相當有限，對水情只有小小幫助。統計8月份降雨量為歷年第9枯，後續集水區仍需有效降雨，才能確保供水穩定。（李明朝報導）

石門水庫水位位在231公尺附近，仍然在為230公尺進行保衛戰，目前蓄水率為52%左右，北水局副局長郭耀程表示，以目前蓄水與去年相較，約莫相差9千萬噸，主要是今年到目前為止，颱風少，降雨量也不如預期。

統計至8月12日為止，是歷年降雨量第9枯，郭耀程表示，去年8月份降雨量有400多毫米，今年8月份為止只有80多毫米，約僅去年的2成5；和歷年蓄水量比較，則是第9枯。

目前北水局日日監看水情，確保供水穩定，同時呼籲民眾，雖然目前仍是汛期，還是要節約用水。（檔案照）

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午後對流發展旺盛 台南以北14縣市大雨特報

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2020年8月12日 下午2:22

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13 則留言

午後熱對流發展旺盛，氣象局針對台南以北14縣市發出大雨特報，提醒民眾注意瞬間大雨。另針對「基隆市、臺北市、新北市、桃園市」發布大雷雨即時訊息，持續時間至15時45分止。

氣象局發布大雨特報。(取自氣象局網站)

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中央氣象局今天下午2時發出大雨特報，受到對流雲系發展旺盛，易有短時強降雨，今天台南以北地區有局部大雨發生的機率，請注意雷擊及強陣風。

大雨特報地區為基隆市、台北市、新北市、桃園市、新竹縣、新竹市、苗栗縣、台中市、南投縣、雲林縣、彰化縣、嘉義縣、嘉義市及台南市。

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馬龍

氣溫略回升慎防雷陣雨 氣象專家︰日本南方海面熱帶低壓24小時內不會成颱

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70k 人追蹤

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2020年8月12日 上午8:33

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1 則留言

前中央氣象局氣象預報中心主任吳德榮表示，今天西南風持續為台灣附近帶來水氣，迎風面南部、東南部有局部陣雨或雷雨，其他地區午後亦有局部陣雨或雷雨，有大雨或豪雨及大雷雨的機率。各地區氣溫為北部24至35度、中部23至35度、南部24至35度、東部23至36度。至於在日本南方海面的熱帶低壓，氣象局及日本氣象廳皆認為24小時內不致成颱。

各地今天天氣。(取自氣象局網站)

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氣象局表示，今天溫度方面略回升，各地高溫可達攝氏32至34度。不過，台灣附近環境水氣仍多，南部、台東及離島地區不定時有局部短暫陣雨或雷雨，午後主要在中部以北及各地山區有局部短暫雷陣雨，並有局部大雨發生的機率，天氣較不穩定，外出請攜帶雨具備用。

吳德榮在「三立準氣象·老大洩天機」專欄指出，今(12日)晨在日本南方海面的「熱帶低壓」(TD08)，因垂直風切大，結構仍呈現高低層分離，中央氣象局及日本氣象廳(JMA)皆認為其短期(24小時)內不致成颱，故在其「颱風消息」已無相關預報。而最新(11日20時)美國系集模式(GEFS)模擬的路徑朝琉球南方(石垣、宮古一帶)海面前進，經過的海域「海洋熱含量」高是有利其發展的，但環境垂直風切大則是對其不利的，未來雖不致很快消散，但要很明顯的發展也不是很容易。更關鍵的因素是颱風強度估計是「主觀」的，故未來有無死灰復燃，而獲得被命名的機會？很難說！已非純粹科學問題，是可以再觀察的。

吳德榮說，最新(11日20時)歐洲中期預報中心(ECMWF)模式模擬顯示，今(12)日西南風持續為台灣附近帶來水氣，大氣很不穩定，迎風面南部、東南部有局部陣雨或雷雨，其他地區午後亦有局部陣雨或雷雨，有大雨或豪雨及大雷雨的機率。台灣附近各海面風浪逐漸減小，但岸邊活動，仍應注意安全。 

他說，最新模式模擬顯示，明日至下周二(13至18日)恢復為晴朗炎熱，最高溫約35、36度，中午前後仍要防曬、防中暑。但大氣不穩定，午後對流旺盛，有局部陣雨或雷雨，仍有「大雷雨」發生的機率。

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馬龍

雙北高溫警戒上看38度！氣象專家：熱帶擾動發展中、下周防劇烈天氣

Yahoo奇摩（即時新聞）

69.8k 人追蹤

已追蹤

2020年8月7日 上午8:24

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2 則留言

前中央氣象局氣象預報中心主任吳德榮說，歐洲中期預報中心(ECMWF)模式模擬顯示，今起三天(7至9日)受「太平洋高壓脊」的影響，各地晴朗酷熱；台灣附近低層大氣為東南風，水氣多、大氣不穩定，山區午後有對流發展，擴及部分平地；迎風面恒春半島及花、東偶有局部短暫雨發生；清晨西部沿海有「陸風輻合」造成的零星降雨。今日最高氣溫約在36、37度，地理環境特殊的地點；不排除升至38度的「極端高溫」，要注意防曬、防中暑。今日各地區氣溫：北部24至38度、中部24至37度、南部23至36度、東部23至36度。

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（取自氣象局網站）

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氣象局今天持續發出高溫資訊，天氣高溫炎熱，中午前後台北市、新北市地區為黃色燈號，請注意。

氣象專家吳德榮在「三立準氣象·老大洩天機」專欄指出，「熱帶擾動」在菲律賓東方明顯發展，模擬動向大致沿菲律賓東方海面，向北通過台灣東側海面，繼續北上。歐洲中期預報中心(ECMWF)模式模擬則顯示，「熱帶擾動」強度較弱，路徑也是在台灣東側北上，移速相近略偏東。最新模擬資料顯示，無論「熱帶擾動」發展的程度如何？直接侵襲台灣的機率皆偏低。

他說，下周一至周三(10至12日)台灣受「西南氣流」影響，但各地受影響的程度，仍與「熱帶擾動」的發展及路徑有關，目前模擬資料有很大的「不確定性」，持續觀察其最新的調整是必要的。

吳德榮表示，最新歐、美模式模擬即使有「不確定性」存在，但仍皆顯示：下周一至周三台灣附近水氣大增，大氣很不穩定，易有局部陣雨或雷雨，並有「劇烈天氣」發生的機率，應特別注意。下周四(13日)恢復為晴朗炎熱，午後有局部陣雨或雷雨的天氣。

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（取自氣象局網站）

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馬龍

熱帶擾動發展…颱風醞釀！變天時間點出爐

EBC東森新聞

27.6k 人追蹤

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東森新聞

2020年8月7日 上午7:21

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5 則留言

檢視相片

把握好天氣！今（7）日各地為多雲到晴的炎熱天氣，值得注意的是，周末南方可能有擾動生成的機會，天氣將轉為不穩定，也不排除生成颱風，請注意天氣變化。

中央氣象局表示，今日太平洋高壓勢力比今天稍微減弱，但台灣附近水氣不多，低層風向為東南風，各地大多為多雲到晴，高溫炎熱的天氣，僅東南部地區及恆春半島有局部零星陣雨，午後中南部、大台北地區及東半部山區有局部短暫雷陣雨，建議午後外出攜帶雨具以備不時之需；氣溫方面，各地白天炎熱，高溫多在33至35度，其中大台北地區有局部36度以上高溫發生的機率，外出應注意防曬措施並多補充水分。

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史上最熱7月創多項紀錄！氣象局5張圖表一窺多驚人

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記者曹悅華／台北即時報導

2020年8月6日 上午9:06

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留言

今年7月與2007、2014年並列台灣史上最熱7月！中央氣象局的臉書粉絲專頁「報氣候 - 中央氣象局」表示，還記得今年5-6月是史上最熱梅雨季嗎？剛過去的7月依舊還是熱，與2007年及2014年並列史上最熱的7月。

「報氣候 - 中央氣象局」表示，2020、2014、2007年7月均溫四捨五入至小數點後一位後皆為30，如果至小數點後2位則為30.02、29.98、29.97，依照WMO的計算指南取到小數點後一位，「如果硬要分個高下，今年要說是史上最熱也未嘗不可」。

氣象局說，此外，台北、玉山、嘉義及大武等四站更是刷新7月或全年的日最高溫紀錄。台北的高溫日數亦是有史以來最多，幾乎天天都高於35度（29天），甚至還有2天高於39度。

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今起3天晴朗炎熱 氣象專家：下周一變天防劇烈天氣

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2020年8月6日 上午8:19

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2 則留言

前中央氣象局氣象預報中心主任吳德榮說，颱風「哈格比」因東海北部海溫低，且愈接近「梅雨鋒」風切愈大，故今晨2時尚未抵達朝鮮半島前，除日本(JMA)、中國大陸(CMA)、中央氣象局外，各國皆已先後將其「強度估計」，減弱為「熱帶低壓」。今晨恆春半島及台東有局部降雨，各地區平地最低溫在約在23、24度左右。

（取自氣象局網站）

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氣象專家吳德榮在「三立準氣象·老大洩天機」專欄指出，歐洲中期預報中心(ECMWF)模式模擬顯示，今天至周六(6至8日)受「太平洋高壓脊」的影響，各地晴朗炎熱，要注意防曬、防中暑。台灣附近低層大氣為東南風，水氣多、大氣不穩定，山區午後有對流發展，將擴及部分平地；迎風面恒春半島及花、東偶有局部短暫雨發生的機率。今日各地區氣溫：北部24至36度、中部24至36度、南部24至36度、東部23至36度。

他說，各國(歐、美、加⋯)模式模擬顯示，菲律賓東側及南海海域，在「太平洋高壓」勢力之外，海洋熱含量OHC高、垂直風切也不大，為有利「熱帶擾動」發展的環境。周六(8日)20時美國、歐洲模式皆已模擬出，其位置大約在呂宋島東北方，但強度則有很大差異。模擬動向則大致通過台灣東側海面北上；下周一至周三(10至12日)「西南氣流」或另一「擾動」緊隨其後，對台灣產生不同程度的影響；也顯示模擬有很大的「不確定性」。不過，共同的結論是：下周一起台灣附近水氣大增，大氣很不穩定，易有局部陣雨或雷雨，並有「劇烈天氣」發生的機率。

吳德榮也表示，以目前模擬資料來看，「熱帶擾動」的發展與威脅程度？天氣變化的時空分布？皆有很大的「不確定性」，但隨著資料更新，「不確定性」逐漸降低，故持續觀察最新資料的調整是必要的。

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