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[轉貼] 投資專家James Rogers羅傑斯命盤

吉姆·羅傑斯[編輯]

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吉姆·羅傑斯
Jim-rogers-madrid-160610.jpg
出生小詹姆士·畢蘭德·羅傑斯
James Beeland Rogers Jr.

1942年10月19日(78歲)
美國馬里蘭州巴爾的摩
國籍 美國
母校牛津大學貝利奧爾學院
耶魯大學
職業量子基金及索羅斯基金管理公司共同創辦人
配偶Lois Biener (1966-69)
Jennifer Skolnik (1974-77)
Paige Parker (2000-)
兒女2名

小詹姆士·畢蘭德·羅傑斯(英語:James Beeland Rogers Jr.,1942年10月19日-)為美國著名投資者、經濟分析師、旅行家、大學教授及作家,曾與索羅斯共同創立量子基金,以投資於商品期貨聞名,有「商品大王」之稱[1]。

生平[編輯]

1942年出生於馬里蘭州巴爾的摩,童年於阿拉巴馬州丹波里斯(Demopolis)度過,五歲時已開始販售花生賺錢。1964年從耶魯大學畢業後,首份工作是在華爾街Dominick & Dominick公司工作,當時的他仍未懂得分辨股票與債券。其後他到英國牛津大學貝利奧爾學院(Balliol College)深造,1966年獲得第二個學士學位,並返回美國入伍。

1970年羅傑斯退役後,加入Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder,並在此認識索羅斯,同年與索羅斯成立量子基金。在其後10年,量子基金升值3,365% (根據羅傑斯的資料),而道瓊工業平均指數在同一時期則只上升20%。1980年,羅傑斯決定「退休」。

其後,羅傑斯成為哥倫比亞大學商學研究院的客席財務教授。1989年至1990年,羅傑斯曾主持節目「The Dreyfus Roundtable」及「The Profit Motive with Jim Rogers」。2002年,他成為霍士新聞台節目《Cavuto on Business》的長期嘉賓。1998年,他創辦「羅傑斯國際商品指數」(RICI),RICI從1998年8月1日至2006年6月共上升263%。他亦曾著作多本與投資有關的書籍:《風險資本主義者》等。

2003年4月25日,百人會2003年年會開設「中國的機會與市場的發展」討論會,《中國即將崩潰》作者章家敦應邀擔任主講人[2],原本是對頭的索羅斯基金管理公司董事長兼執行長馬克·史瓦茲(Mark Schwartz)、摩根史坦利亞洲榮譽董事長傑克·華沃茲(Jack S. Wadsworth)與羅傑斯聯合圍剿章家敦[3]。

旅遊[編輯]

羅傑斯曾在1980年代駕駛摩托車在中國大陸旅遊,1990年至1992年則駕駛摩托車環遊世界,在世界六大洲橫越65,065哩,並因此被列入金氏世界紀錄大全。1999年1月1日至2002年2月5日,他又創下另一項世界紀錄,旅程經過116個國家,橫越245,000公里,並與其未婚妻佩姬·帕克(Paige Parker)同行,旅程自冰島開始;在2002年1月5日,他們返回紐約市Riverside Drive的家。

私人生活[編輯]

羅傑斯在1966年與洛伊絲·比涅爾(Lois Biener)結婚並在1969年離婚。1974年羅傑斯與詹妮弗·斯科爾尼克(Jennifer Skolnik)結婚並在1977年離異。羅傑斯在2000年與佩姬·帕克(Paige Parker)結婚,他們生了兩個女兒希爾頓·奧古斯塔·帕克·羅傑斯(暱稱快樂·羅傑斯 Happy)和碧蘭·安德森·帕克·羅傑斯(暱稱小蜜蜂·羅傑斯 Bee),一家人從2007年開始在新加坡定居。快樂·羅傑斯和小蜜蜂·羅傑斯都能說流利的漢語普通話,2017年年末,快樂和小蜜蜂說漢語的視頻在中國網絡上爆紅。

https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8D%A0%C2%B7%E7%BE%85%E5%82%91%E6%96%AF

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Jim Rogers

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Jim Rogers
Jim-rogers-madrid-160610.jpg
American investor Jim Rogers in Madrid (Spain) during an interview.
Born
James Beeland Rogers Jr.

October 19, 1942 (age 78)
CitizenshipAmerican
Alma materBalliol College, Oxford (B.A.)
Yale University (B.A.)
OccupationChairman of Beeland Interests
Co-founder of the Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management
Spouse(s)Lois Biener (m. 1966–69)
Jennifer Skolnik (m. 1974–77)
Paige Parker (m. 2000)
Children2
Websitewww.jimrogers.com

James Beeland Rogers Jr. (born October 19, 1942) is an American investor and financial commentator based in Singapore. Rogers is the Chairman of Beeland Interests, Inc. He was the co-founder of the Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management. He was also the creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI).

Rogers does not consider himself a member of any school of economic thought, but has acknowledged that his views best fit the label of the Austrian School of economics.[2][3]

Early life[edit]

Rogers was born in Baltimore, Maryland and raised in Demopolis, Alabama.[1]

Education[edit]

In 1964, Rogers graduated with a bachelor's degree cum Laude in History from Yale University.[4] He got his first job on Wall Street, at Dominick & Dominick.[5]

In 1966, Rogers then acquired a second BA degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the University of Oxford, as a member of Balliol College.[6]

In April 2019, he received the honorary Ph.D. from the Pusan National University with a recognition of his books in which his positive messages on Korean unification and the bright future are presented.[7]

Business career[edit]

In 1964, Rogers joined Dominick & Dominick LLC on Wall Street, where he first learned about stocks and bonds. From 1966 to 1968, Rogers served as a draftee in the US Army for military service during the Vietnam War.[8]

In 1970, Rogers joined investment bank Arnhold and S. Bleichroder, where he worked with George Soros.[9]

In 1973, Soros and Rogers both left and founded the Quantum Fund. From 1970 to 1980, the portfolio gained 4200% while the S& advanced about 47%.[10] The Quantum Fund was one of the first truly global funds. In 1980, Rogers decided to "retire", and spent some of his time traveling on a motorcycle around the world. Since then, he has been a guest professor of finance at the Columbia Business School.[11]

In 1985, he explained that the Vienna Exchange has a high potential resulting in a bull market.

In 1989 and 1990, Rogers was the moderator of WCBS' The Dreyfus Roundtable and FNN's The Profit Motive with Jim Rogers. From 1990 to 1992, he traveled through China again, as well as around the world, on motorcycle, over 100,000 miles (160,000 km) across six continents, which was picked up in the Guinness Book of World Records. He tells of his adventures and worldwide investments in Investment Biker, a bestselling book.

In 1998, Rogers founded the Rogers International Commodity Index. In 2007, the index and its three sub-indices were linked to exchange-traded notes under the banner ELEMENTS. The notes track the total return of the indices as an accessible way to invest in the index. Rogers is an outspoken advocate of agriculture investments.

Between January 1, 1999, and January 5, 2002, Rogers did another Guinness World Record journey through 116 countries, covering 245,000 kilometers with his wife, Paige Parker, in a custom-made Mercedes. The trip began in Iceland, which was about to celebrate the 1000th anniversary of Leif Eriksson's first trip to America. On January 5, 2002, they were back in New York City and their home on Riverside Drive. He wrote Adventure Capitalist following this around-the-world adventure. It is currently one of his bestselling books.

2002 to present[edit]

On his return in 2002, Rogers became a regular guest on Fox News' Cavuto on Business and other financial TV shows.[12] In 2005, Rogers wrote Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market, in which Rogers quotes a Financial Analysts Journal academic paper co-authored by Yale School of Management professor, Geert Rouwenhorst, entitled Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures.

In December 2007, Rogers sold his mansion in New York City for about 16 million USD and moved to Singapore. Rogers claimed that he moved because now is a ground-breaking time for investment potential in Asian markets. Rogers's daughters speak fluent Mandarin to prepare them for the future. He is quoted as saying: "If you were smart in 1807 you moved to London, if you were smart in 1907 you moved to New York City, and if you are smart in 2007 you move to Asia."[13]

In a CNBC interview with Maria Bartiromo broadcast on May 5, 2008, Rogers said that people in China are extremely motivated and driven, and he wants to be in that type of environment, so his daughters are motivated and driven. He also stated that this is how America and Europe used to be. He chose not to move to Chinese cities like Hong Kong or Shanghai due to the high levels of pollution causing potential health problems for his family; hence, he chose Singapore. However, he remains skeptical of India's future, stating in 2001 that "India as we know it will not survive another 30 or 40 years".[14]

In 2008 Rogers endorsed Ron Paul, a Republican congressman, for President of the United States.[15]

Personal life[edit]

Rogers has been married three times. In 1966, he married his first wife, Lois Biener; they divorced in 1969. In 1974, he married Jennifer Skolnik; they divorced in 1977.[16] He married Paige Parker in 2000;[17] they have two daughters.[17]

In September 2012 Rogers was appointed by VTB Capital as an advisor to the agricultural division of its global private equity unit. Rogers noted: "Russia and the CIS region have all the ingredients needed to become the world's agriculture powerhouse. It seems that everything may now be coming together under VTB Capital to make this happen, so I am keen to participate, if the fund gets off the ground."[18]

In February 2013 Rogers joined the Board of Advisors of the Coalition to Reduce Spending.[19] In September 2015, he left the Indian market saying "one can't just invest on hope".[20]

Financial advice[edit]

In 2002, Rogers said that Fed chairman Alan Greenspan's "reaction to the stock-market bubble has caused two more bubbles to grow: a real-estate bubble and a consumer-debt bubble."[21] In 2006, Rogers said he was shorting US financials, home builders and Fannie Mae.[22][23]

On November 4, 2010, speaking at Balliol College, Oxford, Rogers urged students to scrap career plans for Wall Street or the City, London's financial district, and to study agriculture and mining instead. "The power is shifting again from the financial centers to the producers of real goods. The place to be is in commodities, raw materials, natural resources."[24]

In May 2012 he remarked during an interview with Forbes magazine that "there's going to be a huge shift in American society, American culture, in the places where one is going to get rich. The stock brokers are going to be driving taxis. The smart ones will learn to drive tractors so they can work for the smart farmers. The farmers are going to be driving Lamborghinis. I'm telling you. You should start Forbes Farming."[25] Rogers has been periodically bearish on the US stock market since the 1980s, notably 1987, 1998, 1999 & 2008. In February 2018, he reportedly predicted that the next bear market would be "the worst in our lifetime."[26]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers

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「商品教父」羅傑斯:全球債務飆升 2008年金融風暴恐重演

  
有「商品教父」之稱的投資大師羅傑斯(Jim Rogers)警告,目前全球銀行業動盪尚未結束,隨著全球債務水準飆高,可能會像滾雪球一樣,演變為比2008年全球金融海嘯更嚴重的危機。(路透)

有「商品教父」之稱的投資大師羅傑斯(Jim Rogers)警告,目前全球銀行業動盪尚未結束,隨著全球債務水準飆高,可能會像滾雪球一樣,演變為比2008年全球金融海嘯更嚴重的危機。(路透)

2023/03/30 21:35

〔編譯盧永山/綜合報導〕有「商品教父」之稱的投資大師羅傑斯(Jim Rogers),3月29日接受美國財經網站Moneycontrol訪問時警告,目前全球銀行業的動盪尚未結束,隨著全球債務水準飆高,可能會像滾雪球一樣,演變為比2008年全球金融風暴更嚴重的危機;並說在各國央行開始寬鬆週期之前,利率將會升的更高。

羅傑斯指出,從歷史教訓來看,金融危機通常始於孤立事件,「如果你回顧過往的每一次金融危機,它們通常是從1個小地方或1個偏僻的角落開始,然後在幾個月之後,我們遭遇非常嚴重的問題,因此這次銀行業動盪尚未結束」。

近來美國矽谷銀行(SVB)、瑞士信貸等銀行突然倒閉,引發人們對於這場危機可能蔓延更廣的疑慮,全球市場遭到重創。各國政府紛紛出手保護存戶,平息恐慌情緒,這在一定程度上協助恢復投資人的信心,但市場上仍有強烈的緊張情緒暗流在湧動,上週德意志銀行股價大跌就是明證。

羅傑斯說:「由於全球債務太多,我們在2008年遇到了問題,從2008年以來,各地的債務飆升,債務規模巨大,所以下次我們遇到問題時,肯定是非常糟糕,因為債務水準增加的非常多。」

羅傑斯指出,印度和美國等國家目前的債務水準很高,美國是全球歷史上最大的債務國,而即使是25年前負債還不那麼嚴重的中國,現在也債台高築,「所以這對所有人而言是個非常嚴重的問題,上週有一些銀行破產,下次會有更多銀行破產,如果你還記得2008年,當時的危機始於2007年的一些小銀行破產,然後是雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)垮掉,每個人才意識到出問題了」。

在回答有關利率走勢的問題時,羅傑斯暗示,現在就預測利率會很快放緩還為時過早。他說:「1980年代美國公債殖利率高達20%,當時的通膨情況非常糟糕。而這次的通膨情況可能更糟。在這一切結束之前,利率將會升到非常高的水準,不是在這個月,不是在2023年3月,而是在這一切結束之前。」

https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/4256797

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