[轉貼] 昌鴻估成中颱

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昌鴻估成中颱 氣象專家：來台機會顯著減少

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2020年10月6日 上午7:21

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輕度颱風昌鴻昨天生成，許多民眾擔心會不會影響到國慶連假及相關活動。圖為本刊資料照。

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輕度颱風昌鴻昨（5日）生成，目前預測往日本移動，氣象達人彭啟明今（6日）指出，昌鴻颱風的路徑，顯著的收斂中，來台灣附近機會顯著減少，剩下就是東北風和很外圍水氣影響程度了。今天受到東北風影響，台灣南北天氣差異大，北東濕涼添衣物，中南略熱、空氣品質差，沿海風浪大，海上活動注意安全。

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輕度颱風昌鴻路徑潛勢預報。（翻攝自中央氣象局網站）

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中央氣象局預報員林定宜指出，昌鴻颱風今晨2時中心位置在台北東方1,800公里海面上，週四前往琉球移動，之後預期以轉向日本的機率最大，其他路線機率較小，但路徑仍有不確定性，還要再觀察；而它仍有增強機率，有可能達中颱。

中央氣象局稍早也發布陸上強風特報，東北風增強，台南以北、東半部地區（含綠島、蘭嶼）、恆春半島及澎湖、金門、馬祖沿海空曠地區將有8至10級強陣風，沿海及鄰近海域並有較大風浪，海邊活動請注意安全。

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馬龍

昌鴻今恐轉中颱！狂飆大轉彎 國慶連假天氣曝

EBC東森新聞

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東森新聞

2020年10月7日 上午7:01

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3 則留言

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氣象局預估，輕度颱風昌鴻有可能在今（7日）變成中颱，且路徑大轉彎，來到琉球群島東方海面時將北轉，直撲台灣的機率不大，但由於外圍環流的水氣影響，國慶連假天氣走向也隨即曝光！

根據氣象主播王淑麗的報導，儘管昌鴻直接衝擊台灣的機率不大，但因為外圍環流的因素，國慶第一天（9日）和第二天（10日），因為受到東北風影響，北部東北部局部雨，偶有局部較大雨勢發生機率，天氣稍涼，其他地區則是多雲到晴，早晚涼，花東地區偶有零星雨，中南部山區則有午後局部短暫雨；國慶連假最後一天（11日），東北風稍微減弱，北海岸、東半部地區及北部山區局部雨，午後南部地區及中部山區局部陣雨。

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昌鴻預測路徑圖。（圖／中央氣象局）

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氣象風險公司也強調，國慶連假期間持續受偏北風、東北風影響，北部、東北部雲量多，同時還是有迎風面樣與的機會，天氣比較不穩定，建議您安排活動往新竹以南走較為適合，由於颱風洽在日本附近，仍然會帶來湧浪或長浪，從今日到連假期間都不建議前往海邊戲水，尤其是北部、東半部的沿岸風浪較大，提醒您要多加注意。

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氣象局稍早發布陸上強風警報。（圖／中央氣象局）

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至於昌鴻颱風的走向為何？氣象專家賈新興則透露，目前預報趨勢大致穩定，會轉向日本，且當它接近四國時，幾乎定格在外海2天，這對日本來說不是好消息，儘管昌鴻對台灣的國慶假期天氣，已經沒有影響了，但也是一喜一憂，憂的仍是降雨不足，單靠東北季風帶來的降雨仍舊不夠。

（封面圖／中央氣象局）

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