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都算中共的 專家預言美國大選結果…

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2020年6月27日 下午5:50

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政治中心／綜合報導

美國總統大選11月投票，現任總統川普也積極拚連任，期望能夠繼續獲得選民的支持。對此，根據美國《紐約時報》公布的最新民調顯示，民主黨準候選人拜登領先川普14個百分點。對此，總體經濟學家吳嘉隆認為，美國選民很清楚，疫情的責任在中共，所以，一定要支持敢對中共下重手的川普。他因此斷言「結果是，疫情的發生會是讓川普穩連任。我是這樣看的。」

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吳嘉隆發文（圖／翻攝自臉書）

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對於美國總統大選選情，吳嘉隆26日在臉書分析表示，疫情發生後，美國選民就怪罪川普，改投拜登嗎？不會的！因為，美國選民很清楚，疫情的責任在中共，所以，一定要支持敢對中共下重手的川普。

吳嘉隆說，今年以來美國的經濟與股市的嚴重下滑，也是一樣的原理：責任在疫情，而疫情的責任在中共。所以，「中共輸出疫情，搞壞美國經濟，以為這樣就可以搞掉川普，根本是不懂選舉」。因為，選民當然會去問經濟突然在今年轉壞的背後原因。這一來正好證明川普要與中共全面脫鉤是對的，是有遠見的！

吳嘉隆認為，美國選民會根據川普上任的前三年的表現，來判斷川普到底有沒有國家治理能力，尤其是治理經濟的能力！所以，新總統上任的第三年下半年才是觀察的重點，才是選民對現任總統打分數的重點時期！而美國選民都知道， 2019年下半年美國的經濟數據非常好，對川普的信賴感已經建立。

吳嘉隆提及，今年的經濟轉壞，毫無疑問是因為疫情的擴散，疫情是因為中共管制了武漢人不進入北京與上海，卻讓武漢人出國到世界各地，等於是在輸出武漢肺炎病毒到世界各地。這樣的中共，你認為美國選民會有什麼感受呢？然後，那個拜登還從中共那邊拿到許多好處⋯。「結果是，疫情的發生會是讓川普穩連任。我是這樣看的。」

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對於美國大選，吳嘉隆認為「結果是，疫情的發生會是讓川普穩連任。」。（圖／翻攝自吳嘉隆臉書）

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馬龍

馬龍

1 分鐘  · 

分享對象：公開

偉大的川普大帝竟然也說拜登可能選上這種洩氣話？可見上升處女的他，目前處境有多糟？平常是自大得不得了的哦？可說是全世界第一自大狂！誰能去跟川普秀秀？跟他說，八月中旬以後就會出運了，本命強勁，還是有勝選的把握！現在警惕一下也好，專心打中國，狠狠地打，就必能連任！

馬龍

川普選戰「幾乎沒有翻盤的可能」 學者示警：台灣恐因美國大選而壓力升高

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羅立邦

2020年7月4日 上午11:21

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美國總統大選將於11月3日舉行，尋求連任的現任總統川普（Donald Trump）近來民調大幅落後民主黨對手拜登（Joe Biden）。對此，台灣國際法學會副秘書長林廷輝認為，如果沒有發生重大事件，川普幾乎沒有翻盤的可能，且川普可能也會為了勝選而在外交、軍事上採取更激烈的手段，讓台灣壓力加大。

根據《紐約時報》24日公布的民調顯示，拜登目前民調支持度為50%，川普則是36%，雙方差距14個百分點。

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美國民主黨總統候選人、前副總統拜登（Joe Biden）（AP）

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美國民主黨總統候選人、前副總統拜登（Joe Biden）（美聯社。）

林廷輝接受《中評社》訪問時指出，川普民調低迷的主因是新冠肺炎（武漢肺炎）及種族衝突，尤其民主黨正主攻種族政策。他認為，現在美國的內政問題比外交還要嚴峻，之後更可能還會有第二波的疫情，川普民調還可能繼續探底，若沒有重大事件拉回，川普在年底輸掉大選的機會很大。

林廷輝也分析，如今川普民調低迷，主要是內政問題所致，因此他很可能想在外交上拿分，故川普一定會對中國採取更嚴厲的政策；若中國無法落實中美第一階段貿易協定內容，川普很可能在台海、南海議題上採取更激烈的做法，只要川普狠下心採去更大規模活動，這兩處都很可能引爆衝突。

林廷輝也表示，川普下一步就是要逐步增加台灣的壓力，過去美國曾要求南韓部署薩德系統，中國也對南韓制裁，現在美國建立防衛體系，會否要求台灣成為薩德系統的一環，恐會引爆兩岸衝突，而這些事就是美國說了算。

更多風傳媒報導

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馬龍

馬龍

剛剛  · 

分享對象：公開

有那些偏藍偏統的名嘴們、媒體們，看著目前川普的民調落後，就開幸災樂禍地始酸台灣了，若川普輸了大選，看台灣怎麼辦？呵呵，流浪占星師馬龍在看川普命盤，預計在八月下旬以後會「回魂」，九月時聲勢民調都會「大旺特旺」！要讓那些偏藍偏統的名嘴媒體們大失所望囉！

馬龍

紐時：川普政府考慮對中共黨員全面旅禁

中央社

19.3k 人追蹤

追蹤

The Central News Agency 中央通訊社

2020年7月16日 下午2:38

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128 則留言

（中央社華盛頓15日綜合外電報導）美方知情人士透露，總統川普政府正考慮全面對中國共產黨員及家屬祭出旅行禁令。一旦落實，幾可肯定將招致中方報復，拿尋求赴中或留在當地的美國人開刀，惡化雙方緊張關係。

「紐約時報」報導，這項仍在草擬中的總統令還可授權美國政府撤銷已在美國的中共黨員及其家人的簽證，進而驅逐他們；裡面部分文字也針對解放軍成員與中國國有企業高層祭出旅禁，這些人很可能同時具有黨員身分。

4名知情人士描述，這項總統令的細節尚待敲定，川普最終也可能拒絕簽署，何況要落實執行也有實際面問題。中共擁有9200萬名黨員，2018年造訪美國的中國公民則有300萬人，美國政府無法得知大部分赴美旅客是否擁有黨員身分，想立刻確認有無黨員身分以阻止入境或驅逐已在美國的黨員，將是難題。

● 等同禁2.7億中國人士赴美 落實不易

這項總統令會援引與2017年對主要穆斯林國家實施旅禁時的相同「移民與國籍法」（Immigration and Nationality Act）條款，賦予總統暫時禁止「不利美國利益」外籍人士赴美的權力；2017年對主要幾個穆斯林國家的旅禁已延長到今年，但也在法院纏訟中。

參與討論禁令的官員來自白宮、國務院及國土安全部，他們也在爭論，若無法禁止所有中共黨員來美，是否改採其他限制，例如只鎖定中共中央政治局25名委員及其家人。

中共對中國人民而言，既是有力的統治階層，也已融入生活中，黨的高層掌控國家內外大計，低層則負責督導學校、管理鄰里等生活大小事。最近幾十年，許多中國公民為了在生意、學術甚至藝文等領域往上爬而入黨，很多黨員並不遵奉官方意識形態，甚至有些是參加地下教會的基督徒。

政府內部估計，若真要對全部中共黨員與家屬祭出旅禁，技術上來說，得禁止多達2.7億人赴美。

華府智庫「戰略暨國際研究中心」（CSIS）中國專家布蘭契特（Jude Blanchette）說：「絕大多數中共黨員都沒參與北京政府決策，所以誅討所有中共黨員，就好像中國僅因討厭川普就制裁所有共和黨人一樣，這麼做會激怒中國輿論，因為這相當於針對全中國近一成人口，也等於一竿子打翻一船人。」

● 傳川普踩煞車 暫不對中國高官更多制裁

不過另有美國主流媒體披露，川普已指示幕僚，不希望進一步加劇與北京的緊張關係，並暫時排除對中國高官實施更多制裁。

報導指出，川普不打算增加制裁的私自決定是在14日簽署「香港自治法」前就已做出，這與他近幾週公開在疫情、貿易和香港等議題上與中國叫陣，形成強烈對比。「香港自治法」要求制裁破壞香港自治的「主犯」，但沒要求政府立即行動。

兩名不具名知情人士透露，在川普決定不擴大打擊面之前，他的團隊已列好一份制裁名單，中國國務院副總理兼中共中央政治局常委韓正、香港特別行政區行政長官林鄭月娥、香港警務處長鄧炳強都在其中。（譯者：陳亦偉/核稿：曾依璇）1090716

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馬龍

民調落後拜登15個百分點 川普：假的！我沒輸

法新社

2.2k 人追蹤

追蹤

法新社 中文新聞

2020年7月20日 下午2:50

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1 則留言

（法新社華盛頓19日電） 美國總統川普抨擊民主黨籍對手拜登「無法勝任」總統職務，還說拜登若在11月3日當選總統將會毀了美國，他也對民調慘輸拜登嗤之以鼻，痛斥這些都是「假民調」。

川普日前接受「福斯週日新聞」（Fox News Sunday）訪問時，節目主持人華勒斯（Chris Wallace）告訴川普，福斯的最新民調顯示，拜登不僅在處理疫情和應對種族問題的能力方面領先川普，甚至在應付經濟問題方面也取得了領先優勢，而川普長期以來正是打著復甦經濟的大旗。

華盛頓郵報和美國廣播公司新聞網的最新民調也顯示，民主黨總統參選人拜登（Joe Biden）以55%的支持率領先川普的40%，領先幅度擴大到15個百分點。

川普對這些民調結果嗤之以鼻，痛斥這些都是「假的」，他說，白宮所做的調查顯示，他在全國和關鍵搖擺州的支持度都勝過拜登。

川普在今天播出的訪問中說：「首先要說的是，我沒輸，因為那些都是假民調。」「2016年的民調就是假的，如今更假。這些民調比2016年還糟。」

拜登陣營回應說：「美國人民將在這次選舉做出決定。美國政府絕對有能力將侵入者送出白宮。」（譯者：劉文瑜/核稿：嚴思祺）

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選情告急大轉性？ 川普告解：後悔常衝動推文

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2020年7月25日 下午2:05

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41 則留言

美國總統大選倒數，川普什麼都要爭第一，連記憶力都要拿來跟拜登比，只是他錯把檢測失智症認知測驗，當成IQ測驗，而經常用推特治國的他，也疑似因為民調慘輸，竟然轉性，在專訪中表示，後悔自己經常衝動推文，還說他懷念不當總統的日子。

 

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美國總統川普：「我們以往經常寫了信，然後覺得信的內容太糟糕了，然後你會把信放進抽屜，隔天會慶幸『喔還好我沒寄出去』，但我們在推特上不會這麼做，你知道我發現什麼嗎？不是你的推文，而是轉推讓你惹上麻煩。」

 

美國總統川普接受專訪竟然大方承認，衝動推文經常讓自己好後悔，還說他懷念不當總統的日子。

 

美國總統川普：「我最美好的日子，在生意、生活和各種層面來說，都是在我當上總統前。」

 

川普一連串告解讓人不免聯想，是不是因為選情告急，民調輸對手拜登太多，連記憶力很好這件事，也要拿來說嘴。

 

美國總統川普：「那不是一個簡單的問題，他們會給你五個名字，你必須重覆說出來，那沒問題，然後大概在2025分鐘後，他們說『回到剛才那個問題』，『他們不會先告訴你這件事』。」

 

可能是川普日理萬機太燒腦，才會錯把可以檢測有無失智症的認知測驗當成智力測驗，稱自己心智能力優於拜登，CNN主播想取笑川普，但沒想到卻自己在新聞直播中出糗。

 

CNN主播Lemonvs.CNN主播Cuomo：「是獅子、河馬和駱駝，(中間不是犀牛嗎)是犀牛，(你甚至不能分辨犀牛跟河馬嗎)，犀牛抱歉(孩子您沒有敏銳度)，我是反著看的我是反著看的。」

 

CNN主播在螢幕前開心鬥嘴開川普玩笑，沒想到卻挖了個洞讓自己跳。

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馬龍

質疑通訊投票 川普建議延後美國總統大選

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9.5k 人追蹤

追蹤

2020年7月31日 上午6:48

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美國總統川普突然在推特發文，暗示他想延後總統大選，直到疫情結束。川普質疑透過郵寄投票選舉，可能成為史上最不準、最騙人的選舉。(特約記者戚海倫報導)

 

川普30日透過推特發文，他問到，把選舉延後，直到民眾可以適當、安全、平安投票嗎？

 

推文中川普表示，實施全面通訊投票，將使得2020大選成為史上最不準確、最具欺騙性的選舉，這會讓美國非常尷尬。

 

目前川普的民調落後。而在美國歷史上，從來不曾延後過總統大選，就算內戰期間選舉都照常舉行。這是川普首度提出延後大選的想法，他沒有提出證據，但質疑通訊投票的公平性。

 

根據美國聯邦法規定，總統大選四年一屆，日期訂在選舉年11月1日起的第一個周二，今年預計是11月3日。不過美國總統沒有權力更改大選日期，只有美國國會有權力更改日期。

 

先前川普也曾經批評通訊投票，上個月他曾經說擴大實施通訊投票可能會讓他無法連任，三月他在受訪時也說，如果同意通訊投票，美國就再也不會有共和黨人當選。

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快訊／涉資安爭議 川普爆料最快週日禁「抖音」

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TVBS新聞

2020年8月1日 上午11:32

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圖／達志影像美聯社

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根據福斯新聞網報導，美國總統川普在空軍一號上向記者表示，最快在美國當地時間1日，他就會簽署禁止抖音的行政命令。另外有外媒報導，川普考慮下令微軟收購抖音在北美區的業務，不過目前包括抖音和微軟，都沒有回應這項消息。

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