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台塑石化鐵嘴：原油下半年回到40美元上下

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工商時報彭暄貽

2020年5月29日 下午3:54

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1 則留言

台塑石化預計原油下半年回到40美元上下。（圖／報系資料照）

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台塑四寶首股東會由台塑化29日率先召開。董事長陳寶郎表示，今年景氣非常不樂觀，西德州原油甚至出現負原油價，是自己從事石化產業來未曾見過，但在產油國5月起大幅減產、新冠疫情趨緩，歐美陸續解封，有助油價緩步回穩，預期下半年營運逐步好轉，原油緩步回升，年底有望回到40美元上下3美元震盪水準。

關於美國路州投資案進度，陳寶郎指出，1月取得環評許可後，相關準備工作旋即啟動，目前正在進行工程招標，惟路州疫情嚴重，工人仍限制進入工地，未來將視路州政府解封開放時程，再決定何時動工。總括來說，仍會以原先期盼一期投資2024~2026完工投產為努力目標。

台塑化今年預計銷售汽油541.3萬公秉、柴油1036.1萬公秉；外銷將透過與油商及貿易商合作拓展新加坡、中東及印尼汽油市場，並積極擴展紐澳地區柴油市場。石化產品預計銷售乙烯308.4萬噸、丙烯8247.5萬噸、丁二烯37.9萬噸。

陳寶郎分析，美中達成第一階段貿易協議至今，仍未有撤回關稅動作，加上新冠肺炎疫情衝擊，原油價格隨需求驟降狂跌。近期油價已觸底回升，杜拜原油從4月21日13.5美元，回升到4月29日17.1美元，目前已達33.21美元，但相較元月最高峰69.6美元/桶，營運仍處艱鉅。

目前成品油價差，新加坡92無鉛和杜拜原油的價差是負0.7美元，也就是說汽油比原油還便宜；柴油價差也是負5.5元；燃料則為負0.7元。

陳寶郎認為，因原油市場庫存太高，5月底陸上原油庫存42.5億桶，逼近44億桶可儲存量，海上浮動油槽也有1億桶，成品油也類似狀況，庫存水位達33億桶，只差7千萬桶就達滿水位，油價向上攀揚速度不會太快。

下半年油價、塑化市況有好轉空間，歐美解封後，旅遊、工作等經濟活動增加，原油需求也會上來，而OPEC、俄羅斯減產供應減少，煉油價差將會改善，但是航空用油利差改善會稍慢些。

陳寶郎強調，雖然產業大環境不樂觀，但還是有好消息。台塑化今年爭取統一精工速邁樂加油站合作，取得81個加油站據點，使得台塑化全台加油站據點推進突破600個，提高市場占有率從原本約兩成升至23％，有助油品銷量增加。

此外，台塑化與日本出光合資年產4.38萬噸HHCR（氫化石油樹脂）現正處試產、爭取認證階段，搭配既有HSBC營運明顯推展，有助高值化佈局穩步開拓。

https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news/%E5%8F%B0%E5%A1%91%E7%9F%B3%E5%8C%96%E9%90%B5%E5%98%B4-%E5%8E%9F%E6%B2%B9%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%8A%E5%B9%B4%E5%9B%9E%E5%88%B040%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%E4%B8%8A%E4%B8%8B-075430540.html

馬龍

馬龍

剛剛 · 

公開

四月裡，石油期貨價格跌到負值，有人破產，有人發大財，真相到底是如何，至今仍無人能解。如今，原油期貨價格又蠢蠢欲動，大概又有人在佈局，等待大撈一筆了！小心哦，六月底、七月初時將會再來負值大跌，千萬不要上了這些國際老千的當，千萬不要追高啊！

馬龍

雖美原油庫存創紀錄高位 國際油價仍收高

2020/06/11 08:53   

國際油價週三上漲。（資料照，路透）

〔財經頻道／綜合報導〕國際油價週三（10日）反彈收高，儘管美國原油庫存升至紀錄高點。

《路透》報導，紐約西德州中級原油7月交割價上漲0.66美元，或1.7%，收每桶39.60美元，盤中跌幅一度超過2%。

布蘭特原油8月交割價上漲0.55美元，或1.3%，收每桶41.73美美元。

根據美國能源資料局（EIA）報告，截至5日當週，原油庫存增加570萬桶，至5.3810億桶。不過對油品需求有所上升，蒸餾油庫存增加，但增幅小於前幾週。

能源機構Lipow Oil Associates總裁李包（Andrew Lipow）表示，我們看到市場的支撐來自成品油，而非原油。

https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/3194220

馬龍

供應緊縮 沙國大幅上調全球7月油價

華視

2020年6月8日 下午7:00

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4 則留言

/ 綜合報導

全球油價將上漲！在原油供應緊縮的影響下，沙烏地阿美石油公司宣布，將上調全球所有地區，7月份的原油價格。以沙烏地阿拉伯為首的石油輸出國家組織以及其他產油國，日前召開視訊會議，同意把4月達成的歷史性減產協議，延長到7月底，也就是承諾從5月1號起到6月底，每天減產原油970萬桶，並從7月開始，逐步縮減到每天減產770萬桶，直到年底。

在確認延長減產規模後，沙烏地阿美石油公司，決定上調對全球所有市場的原油售價，像是對亞洲客戶，阿拉伯輕質原油官方售價，比六月售價上調到每桶6.1美元，讓油價再出現波動。

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馬龍

油價：海灣國家表態停止額外減產，布蘭特期油週一急跌3.6%，紐約油下挫3.4%

財訊快報

陳孟朔

2020年6月9日 上午7:40

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留言

【財訊快報／陳孟朔】石油輸出國家和產油盟國(OPEC+)同意延長減產協議執行期，但沙烏地阿拉伯、科威特和阿聯酋表示不打算將118萬桶/日的自願額外減產延長到6月底之後，衝衝衝的油價週一升勢急踩煞車，紐約期油和布蘭特期油同步回吐逾3%，雙雙自三個月高點跌落。但紐約期油在拉回前，一度衝破40美元阻力。

連七紅的布蘭特8月期油週一挫跌1.50美元或3.6%，結算價報每桶40.80美元，前七個交易日大漲6.85美元或19.3%。同日，紐約7月期油跌1.36美元或3.4%，為五個交易日首黑，收報每桶38.19美元，前四個交易日急漲4.11美元或11.6%，日高在40.44美元為3月6日以來最高。

OPEC、俄羅斯與其他產油國週六同意，將創紀錄減產協議延長至7月底，這項減產協議將全球原油供應削減近10%。

但沙烏地阿拉伯能源大臣阿卜杜勒阿齊茲親王週一表示，沙國及其海灣盟友科威特和阿聯酋將在7月停止自願額外減產。

Rystad Energy分析師Bjornar Tonhaugen表示，「在我們看到出現供應短缺的時候，總計近1,100萬桶/日的自願減產延長一個月，這太好，不可能是真的。」

與此同時，隨著油價反彈，『美國頁岩油生產商已經開始重啟此前關閉的油井』。

分析師們表示，這可能會削弱脆弱的需求復甦，並破壞OPEC支撐油價的努力。此外，沙國提高原油售價，因預計需求會增強。

全球最大原油進口國中國表示，5月原油進口量創紀錄，為1,130萬桶/日。

https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk03og-_es14Bevax8CrYU-gmZOKaQA%3A1591839352610&ei=eIrhXvDvJLnFmAWuooHQDQ&q=Gubio+Nigeria+time+zone&oq=Gubio+Nigeria+time+zone&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzoECCMQJzoECAAQHjoFCCEQoAE6BwghEAoQoAFQvydYo0hg7UpoAHAAeACAAUmIAcgIkgECMjGYAQCgAQGqAQdnd3Mtd2l6&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjwi5vZz_jpAhW5IqYKHS5RANoQ4dUDCAw&uact=5

馬龍

有鬼！產量、庫存都增加，價格不跌反漲！

有心人在佈局，等著準備要傾家蕩產的人跳進來，引君入甕！

小心哪～～

（流浪占星師 馬龍 6-11-2020）

雖美原油庫存創紀錄高位 國際油價仍收高

2020/06/11 08:53

https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/3194220

馬龍

憂爆第二波疫情 金價逼近8年新高

華視

2020年6月23日 下午12:57

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留言

台北市 / 綜合報導

世界衛生組織週日宣布，全球超過18萬3千人確診，這是新冠病毒疫情爆發以來，最高單日新增確診人數。緊接著南韓週一宣布，第二波疫情到來，不少投資者擔心經濟前景，因此提高了黃金的避險需求。

現在金價突破每盎司1750美元的水準，今年以來截至6月19日，全球黃金的持倉累計增加了683公噸，其中北美市場的持倉增加427公噸，歐洲市場也增加了219公噸，亞洲以及其他地區分別增加了23公噸與13公噸。金價今年已上漲15%，逼近2012年以來的最高水平。

https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E6%86%82%E7%88%86%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E6%B3%A2%E7%96%AB%E6%83%85-%E9%87%91%E5%83%B9%E9%80%BC%E8%BF%918%E5%B9%B4%E6%96%B0%E9%AB%98-045700339.html

馬龍

扯！中國珠寶商貸款680億 黃金擔保竟是「假的」

2020/06/29 17:48   

中國爆出企業醜聞，有珠寶商被多間金融機構發現，提供的黃金擔保竟是假黃金。（示意圖，彭博）

〔財經頻道／綜合報導〕在那斯達克上市的中國大型黃金首飾製造商「武漢金鳳珠寶」近5年來頻頻尋求融資，以83公噸的黃金作為擔保，向10幾間主要為信託公司的金融機構貸款160億人民幣（約新台幣677.6億元），但後來多間機構發現自己被「坑慘」了，原來這些黃金，居然是銅鍍金的假黃金。

《財新》報導，金鳳珠寶提供假黃金作擔保的事情，最早是因為金鳳在2019年底違約，東莞信託在今年2月清點擔保品的時候，發現這些黃金居然是假的，此事震撼中國信託界，金鳳的最大債主，中國民生信託得到法院批准，提前檢驗那些黃金擔保，在5月下旬的時候檢驗結果出爐，那些黃金也是假的。

除了東莞信託及中國民生信託以外，還有恆豐銀行及另外1間機構在檢驗後發現，作為擔保的黃金是假的。

另外，目前也尚未確定金鳳珠寶用於擔保的黃金，是一開始就是偽造品，或在抵押後被調包，因為東莞信託及中國民生信託均表示，黃金在存入銀行之前曾經過第三方檢驗，而銀行也沒有這些黃金存入後，曾被提領過的紀錄。

金鳳珠寶之所以要尋求這麼多融資，主因是為了收購企業的股權，但有來自湖北的消息人士透露，近年來金鳳的業務其實不如表面上看來的穩定，消息人士向《財新》聲稱「我們都知道他根本沒有那麼多黃金，他擁有的只是一些銅」，因此「湖北當地幾乎沒有信託或銀行業者，願意與金鳳有金融上的往來」。

而確實的，公開的資料顯示，金鳳珠寶向中國10幾間機構尋求融資，但幾乎沒有機構來自湖北。

目前中國當局已介入調查此事，而數間信託公司也聯合發動訴訟以捍衛自己的權利。

https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/3212165

腋下魔人

回復 442# 馬龍

馬大說的好,一般平民老百姓沒能力玩原物料的

馬龍

避險需求助攻 黃金現貨近九年來首次漲破1,800美元

聯合新聞網

35k 人追蹤

追蹤

編譯林奕榮／綜合外電

2020年7月9日 上午6:24

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留言

今年以來黃金的吸引力持續增強，主因投資人在新冠疫情重創經濟之際尋求避風港，推升避險需求。

黃金現貨8日上漲逾1%，報每英兩1,813.52美元，自2011年11月以來首次突破每英兩1,800美元。今年以來，黃金現貨上漲約20%。

紐約黃金期貨今年來上漲逾19%，8日早盤一度上漲0.95%，報每英兩1827.1美元。

彭博新聞分析，如果突破1,800美元的走勢能維持下去，便可能足以吸引動能交易員的興趣，進而推升金價至歷史新高，站上1,920美元。

疫情對經濟的衝擊，促使各國央行推出規模龐大的刺激方案，也使資金持續流向黃金ETF。美國多州的疫情感染病例和死亡人數7日升至紀錄高點，亞特蘭大聯邦準備銀行總裁波斯提克（Raphael Bostic）表示，疫情升溫可能危及美國經濟復甦步調；這些消息，均對金價提供支撐。

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